Pub. 9 2019-2020 Issue 5

16 O V E R A C E N T U R Y : B U I L D I N G B E T T E R B A N K S — H E L P I N G C O L O R A D A N S R E A L I Z E D R E A M S www.coloradobankers.org Bankers Split: Nearly Half See No Recession Until After 2020 By Bryan Harper Although cybersecurity is still top of mind, bankers see tech giants as their biggest threat from a competitive standpoint. T his quarter’s Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey included n i ne ba n ke r p e r s p e c t i v e s questions, running a gamut of issues from the role of the Federal Reserve to whether peer-to-peer money transfers will replace cash, ATMs, and traditional services. The highlights include: • The Federal Reserve may not be popular with elected officials (on both sides of the political aisle), but bankers want politicians to let it be. Almost all respondents (98%) stated that the Federal Reserve should maintain its i ndependenc e and cont rol over monetary policy without intervention from the president or Congress. • Bankers disagreed about when a recession will start. A small majority (53%) believe the next recession is happening already (7%), will start by the end of 2019 (3%), or will occur sometime in 2020 (43%). By contrast, 47% indicated that the next recession will not start until 2021 or beyond. • Most respondents (61%) believe peer-to-peer money transfer services will eventually displace cash, ATMs, and traditional services. Slightly more than half (53%) said their banks already of fer a peer-to -peer money transfer service, and another 39% are considering introducing one. • A majority of respondents (58%) also believe all-mobile banks will eventually hold a significant market share of millennial and post-millennial depositors.